Since it is now off-season for OSU sports and the NBA draft is one of the hot topics available, I thought I would do an “NBA Draft Bust” analysis based on actual data rather than looking at various articles that are published regularly. Decided to start a new thread for this for anyone interested, and then it can die a natural death when interest fades.
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One note - I personally hate the term “bust”, because it often implies lack of personal worth. But since it is a common term for professional sports draft picks and if we can limit the definition to “lack of on court value for a high draft pick” then I am OK continuing to use the term. Let’s just please keep assessments and discussions strictly on basketball terms.
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Since I’m an #old, I pulled data from Round 1 and Round 2 of each NBA draft all the way back to 1975 when I was 12 (that’s 2489 draft picks!). 330 of 2489 draft picks (13%) never played in an NBA game. Only 1 of those 330 was an elite Round 1 pick – Len Bias (#2, 1986). After Bias, there were ten Round 1 picks that never played an NBA game. You could say these 10 plus Bias constitute the ultimate NBA draft bust team – 1st rounders that never saw the court. Rod Griffin #17/1978, Larry Knight #20/1979, Ken Barlow #23/1986, Shaun Vandiver #25/1991, Frédéric Weis #15/1999, Fran Vázquez #11/2005, Petteri Koponen #30/2007, Livio Jean-Charles #28/2013, Nikola Milutinov #26/2015, and Leandro Bolmaro #23/2020. These 10 all played overseas and therefore don’t make for a fun conversation regarding all-time draft busts, so let’s move on.
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My next filter was to look at only “Top 6” draft picks from Round 1 (276 players). I chose this cutoff to include Big Country, since (as I will subsequently prove) he should never be listed as a draft bust. I then removed any player who has earned a major award such as a Hall of Fame Selection, an All-NBA Team selection, All-Star Selection, or Rookie of the Year). That left 158 players.
For these 158 players, I collected their total number of years in the league, number of regular season games started, regular season points per game, and regular season rebounds per game. 65 of the 158 had NBA careers that lasted a decade or more. While some may be considered disappointments due to expectations, you can’t be considered a “bust” if you held a decade-long career in the NBA. They’re not busts: Marvin Webster, Darryl Dawkins, John Lucas, Kent Benson, Kenny Carr, Greg Ballard, Purvis Short, Mychal Thompson, David Greenwood, Darrell Griffith, Orlando Woolridge, Trent Tucker, LaSalle Thompson, Sidney Green, Rodney McCray, Byron Scott, Sam Bowie, Sam Perkins, Joe Kleine, Jon Koncak, Wayman Tisdale, Benoit Benjamin, Chuck Person, Reggie Williams, Armen Gilliam, Kenny Smith, Chris Morris, Danny Ferry, Pervis Ellison, J. R. Reid, Dennis Scott, Felton Spencer, Kendall Gill, Billy Owens, LaPhonso Ellis, Jimmy Jackson, Shawn Bradley, Calbert Cheaney, Donyell Marshall, Joe Smith, Marcus Camby, Antonio Daniels, Tony Battie, Raef LaFrentz, Mike Bibby, Lamar Odom, Kwame Brown, Eddy Curry, Shane Battier, Jason Richardson, Drew Gooden, Mike Dunleavy Jr., Darko Miličić, Shaun Livingston, Ben Gordon, Martell Webster, Raymond Felton, Marvin Williams, Andrea Bargnani, Jeff Green, Michael Beasley, Danilo Gallinari, Ricky Rubio, Evan Turner, Derrick Favors, Enes Kanter, Tristan Thompson.
Of this list of “decade+ careers” without at least an All-Star game, only 7 didn’t start an average of ¼ of their regular season games - Marvin Webster, John Lucas, Trent Tucker, Joe Kleine, Danny Ferry, Antonio Daniels, and Shaun Livingston. And only 5 didn’t contribute at least 10 combined points and rebounds per game for their career - Joe Kleine, Jon Koncak, Danny Ferry, Antonio Daniels, and Shaun Livingston. Final interesting point on this list is that only 7 were the #1 overall pick - John Lucas, Kent Benson, Mychal Thompson, Pervis Ellison, Joe Smith, Kwame Brown, and Andrea Bargnani. You could make a “bust case” for these 7 based on #1 pick expectations. But you do have to credit them with sustained NBA careers.
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Then I looked at players with less than 10 years in the league but who started at least half of their regular season games and had a simple PER (ppg+rpg) greater than 15. This was a surprisingly short list of only 6 retired players and 10 active players. Big Country popped up here without me intentionally playing with criteria to justify his exclusion as a bust. All of these players were (or currently are) regular starters contributing statistically.
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Let’s now be generous and exclude anyone from the bust list who started at least half of their games OR contributed at least 15 pts+rbs per game (sometimes players are backups to legends and don’t start but do contribute). Others start, but don’t contribute in the traditional points and rebounds statistical categories. After excluding those, I still have 56 players on the list. So now I am trimming the filter down and excluding anyone who didn’t have a 6+ year career, start ¼ of their games, or contribute at least 10 pts+rbs per game.
Now we are down to 13 players. These are my statistically-driven NBA Draft Busts since 1975. They were all Top 6 draft 1st round draft picks that did not last in the league or contribute statistically. They may not be the flashy names that were drafted ahead of a Hall of Famer, hyped by the media, or signed a massive contract extension without sustained success in the league. These are just the guys who didn’t contribute. A team of 12 plus the sad Len Bias story. [Note - it is unfair for me to include Onyeka Okongwu on this list as a 1-year active player. Lots of time for that to change.]
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Draft bust are based on fan perception. Big Country will never shake that.
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I feel good about the process, but the names are just not the ones most of us would expect (with a few exceptions). Kind of interesting, and a massive waste of my time. 
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Definitely agree fan perception — or more so MEDIA perception/promotion – is the driver. I just wanted to see what the real data revealed.
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Now going to a few articles to see who the media lists through more traditional criteria - including who was drafted AFTER them (kind of an unfair way to grade, IMHO). There is very little overlap between my list and this list. Here is one - https://bleacherreport.com/articles/1657535-15-biggest-nba-draft-busts-of-all-time
15. Joe Barry Carroll: Golden State Warriors (No. 1, 1980)
14. Joe Alexander: Milwaukee Bucks (No. 8, 2008)
13. Hasheem Thabeet: Memphis Grizzlies (No. 2, 2009)
12. Marvin Williams: Atlanta Hawks (No. 2, 2005)
11. Shawn Bradley: Philadelphia 76ers (No. 2, 1993)
10. Jay Williams: Chicago Bulls (No. 2, 2002)
9. Robert Traylor: Milwaukee Bucks (No. 6, 1998)
8. Chris Washburn: Golden State Warriors (No. 3, 1986)
7. Adam Morrison: Charlotte Bobcats (No. 3, 2006)
6. Kwame Brown: Washington Wizards (No. 1, 2001)
5. LaRue Martin: Portland Trail Blazers (No. 1, 1972)
4. Greg Oden: Portland Trail Blazers (No. 1, 2007)
3. Michael Olowokandi: Los Angeles Clippers (No. 1, 1998)
2. Darko Milicic: Detroit Pistons (No. 2, 2003)
- Sam Bowie: Portland Trail Blazers (No. 2, 1984)
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Adam Morrison has two rings.
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Shawn Bradley has twice as many points, twice as many rebounds, and six times more blocks than Big Country in the NBA. He actually led the league in blocks in 1997.
Eh, rings don’t matter in bust discussions. Did Morrison contribute?
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Exactly. Shawn Bradley is not even close to a bust.
I like to consider other surrounding picks when thinking about busts. Sometimes, the best available isnt great when the class as a whole is bad. That being said, Darko has to be #1 for me. He was surrounded by some first ballot future HOF’ers, and a huge pile of career-long contributors in a stacked class and he walked away averaging 3 buckets a game for his career. Oof. Oden is a super popular pick, but I hate getting too tough on him because of injuries.
Also, I cannot believe Hasheem Thabeet was TWELVE YEARS AGO. Doesn’t feel like it’s been that long since he was at UConn. time is flying by.
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He played like 40 games. Then retired. 
His mustache kept getting in his way.
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A great counter post- who are the biggest draft steals of all time? Might be even more entertaining.
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A quick start… I scanned the list of those picked in the late in the 2nd round (40th overall or later). Here were a few of the interesting ones (remember I did not pull anyone picked after the 3rd round).
Year Rd Pk Player
1986 2 46 Jeff Hornacek+
1989 2 40 Dino Rađa^
1990 2 45 Antonio Davis+
1990 2 48 Cedric Ceballos+
1999 2 57 Manu Ginóbili*
2000 2 43 Michael Redd*
2003 2 51 Kyle Korver+
2003 2 47 Mo Williams+
2006 2 47 Paul Millsap+
2007 2 48 Marc Gasol*
2008 2 45 Goran Dragić*
2011 2 60 Isaiah Thomas* (not “the” Isiah Thomas)
2014 2 41 Nikola Jokić*
I think Jokic and Ginobili win this.
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Cedric Ceballos is a steal there.