Oregon State Game Pessimism

What is it to be an OSU football fan if you aren’t always just a little worried that the sky might fall?

Here is what worries me about this Friday. Oregon State isn’t great in any particular area, but where they are best (good? competent?) is in the running game with a decent back and a decent line. They won’t score a bunch, but they run the clock and limit possessions. Our offense will have no rhythm because 1) it’s the first game 2) new OC 3) neither quarterback will get into the flow of the game.

Do I think we win? I do. But I am Eastern time and I see this game in the ‘won on a last minute Ramon Richards INT after 2 AM’ category more so than ‘happily going to bed at midnight knowing the game is in hand.’

It’s tough for me to see this being a close game throughout but I could see where we get up big early and take our foot off the gas and they make it closer than it should be towards the end of the game.

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While I don’t think this game will be the cakewalk some are thinking I am not that worried. In fact I think you should flip your thoughts as I think we will be the ones pushing a running game and controlling the game. Considering the following:

  • Their run defense was one of the worst in the country last year and doubt it got a lot better
  • Our OL is improved even more from last year
  • We have a stable of running backs that could possibly control a game, from speed to power to shiftiness we have a back that can cover it
  • New QBs that are not really into the flow of things yet so will not be leaned on heavily to make plays
  • Even if the QBs are a full go Gundy and Gleeson will not be wanting to give away much from the playbook this early against a team that we likely don’t have too

Thus I think we will pound the ball more than most of us are used too.

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I hope we see the difference in playing to our competition unlike last year. I would feel good if we get out big and then never let up until 4th quarter when it’s not a ball game.

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That’s the thing I’m most interested to see.

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My worry is mainly centered on Pac 12 officiating. Still curious if anyone on the crew also worked our game against Arizona in 2012…

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Really good points. I am very bullish on the o-line. Not saying we’ll get back to the Wickline days, but I am anticipating notable improvement

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I have no pessimism around this game. It’s one we should win big, and I don’t see why we wouldn’t.

Our run game could be even better than last year if the o-line is improved as advertised. The WRs will likely torch a staggeringly bad secondary. Not much will be required of either QB to get this win, so it’s a nice confidence builder.

Defense is what I’m most interested in seeing on Friday. I am not terribly worried though, because their QB doesn’t look mobile at all (he’s huge, though). We typically do pretty well against teams that don’t run RPO and don’t have a mobile QB. It should be a nice day of QB pressure without having to watch for the pull down. Makes their job pretty straight forward in game 1 which is nice.

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This needs to be the game thread. hell yes, all in on being negative.

I do have $100 on us covering.

Basically the only way we lose is if we
A. Start the wrong QB, Gundy digs in, offense sputters. We lost at least two games last year because of this,

B. Turnovers

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There’s only three possible ways this game ends up:

  1. We blow them out. Badly. The media mentions it but cautions everyone to remain calm because ‘it’s only Oregon State’.
  2. We win a close one. The media says that there is cause for concern that we let it get that close.
  3. We lose. The media starts wondering if this is the end of the line for Cowboy football, regardless of the fact that it’s only Oregon State.

No matter how it ends up, it won’t be seen as a ‘this team is legit’ thing.

Wow, I’m rolling hardcore cynical today, I guess.

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Just today?

Fair point. I’m not a sunshine-and-flowers fan on the best of days. I just have concerns that we play down to them and it bites us.

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on the optimistic

Gundy realizing he wasn’t doing his job last year is a positive. He more or less did the same thing after 2014 and that put us on a great 3 year run that included a Sugar Bowl, 3 10 win seasons, a biletnikoff, chances to contend for a big 12 title, and multiple NFL picks.

Gundy acknowledging discipline was an issue and that can be fixed in one year. I expect a team that doesn’t commit as many penalties and stays focused. This also somewhat depends on the leadership abilities of the QB, which is unknown at this point.

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I won’t speak for others, but I earned my pessimism the hard way in the late 70s and early 80s, and I’ll never be able to fully overcome that experience.

Or you could just look at the objective fact that 15ish-point favorites lose about 15% of the time in college football. Fifteen percent ain’t nothing.

Their QB is not just NOT mobile but is basically a statue. His immobility last year had them averaging nearly 4 sacks a game.

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Well I think most of are not considering this year to be a playoff potential year so it really does not matter what the media thinks of us, especially early. Just win baby.

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