PFB+ Basketball Thread 3.0

this season is a total toss up. We could surprise and make the tourney or go 2-18 in B12… no idea.

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I don’t expect a tourney berth this year, I just hope to see some semblance of an actual offensive identity

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Honestly NIT would be reasonable. NCAA tourney would be awesome, ncaa tourney win would be unbelievable. This year is a building block for where lutz will want to go.

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If we can make our free throws on a consistent basis I’ll consider the season a win.

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I believe if we make the tournament will come down to if we can upset a few of the big dogs

but everything I have seen/read/heard thus far has been very positive, I think this team with its fight/toughness will always be a tough out

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We have to at least make the NIT tourney or otherwise we don’t have any tractable results-based improvement. Moral victories are nice (ball movement, free throws, etc.) but not enough. Need to win enough for NIT berth and potential run IMO. If we make the big boy NCAA tourney, that would be overperforming and amazing!

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All I want out of this year are watchable games and a winning season

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It’s full AI.

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set the foundation and build off of it

I do not know why but I get a very Moneyball-esque approach from Lutz & Co.

I can just see them this summer talking about transfers, and someone saying they should get some flashy name and Lutz saying “What does x player do?” “Play hard defense and not turn the ball over” kind of like the Moneyball scene if you are familiar

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also I know earlier this summer people said we scheduled Non-Con light because we might stink etc., Lutz said that almost the whole Non-Con schedule was already set

I think the only games he set himself were Seton Hall & Tarleton State (not 100% sure)

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I spend half my day writing code and prompts that tune large language models for clinical decision support, so I’m starting to think like @brianattheRR that nothing is “real” anymore - it’s all just a simulation :smirk:

Let’s simulate a basketball natty for OSU!

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I was curious about free throws and success, and I looked up last year’s tournament. The top 8 teams in free throw percentage all missed the tournament. I was kind of surprised by that. I agree though- it’s so ugly when we can’t make them.

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I’ll never forget a CBS broadcast they were having for one game quite a while back, maybe the late 90’s, and they were interviewing John Wooden near the court. One of the questions asked was how the game has changed since he coached and without hesitating he turned slightly to the court and pointed to the players warming up, most of them launching 3’s and there wasn’t a soul on the FT line.

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almost seems to jive with something I said long, long ago

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You don’t necessarily make it to the tournament because of that ability, but you can sure as hell lose once you’re there if you can’t shoot FT.

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you can also lose if you turnover the ball, miss layups, miss jump shots, cant defend, cant rebound, foul too often, etc. etc.

the same reason you cannot make it to the tournament because of that ability is the same reason you cannot lose because of that ability, basketball is so multi faceted one item does not win or lose you a game, most are just short sighted/not actually watching

same reason field goal kicking does not lose or win you games

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statistically speaking I do not see us being a much better shooting FT team than last year, percentages are almost identical however perhaps Lutz coaches them up/practices in a way that improves guys FT numbers from last year

I think Lutz will have a better FT team. I don’t see us being top notch or anything. However, there is historically a strong statistical correlation with team FT percentage and overall team discipline and, in particular, lower turnovers committed and more turnovers forced. That association and Lutz’s perceived emphasis on discipline, defense, and fast play makes me think he probably has them practicing FTs more/better than MB did. :crossed_fingers:

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Sure hope it turns out that way

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Why teams like LAC can never actually win anything. They think the key to success is hoarding good players but that’s irrelevant if they can’t consistently work together.