Looking at Sagarin, depending on which predictor you use, we are ~4.6-6.7 underdogs. Does this mean anything about our chances of winning considering that the betting line opened with us at +14?
Absolutely. Vegas goes with the $$, which can tend to follow brand names. Just helped choose which side to go on!!
The old rule of thumb used to be if you’re the home team, you get a 7 point consideration. So, if this game was in Norman, would we be 21 pt dogs? Hmmm…
Vegas does not do it way, but if they did I think it would be 21 points neutral site and 28 point underdog in Norman.
SP+ isn’t feeling too good about our chances predicting OU 40, OSU 27.
I think the deal is that Sagarin only takes into account score margins, whereas SP+ and the bookmakers go a little deeper.
So Sagarin sees a team that’s struggled to win their last three games, two of them against teams that aren’t all that great. Whereas SP+ and the bookmakers see a team that would have three pretty easy victories if not for turnovers. Since past turnovers aren’t very predictive of future turnovers, SP+ still sees no real reason not to continue to project OU as a dominant team.
There’s also the fact that OSU is without its starting QB, which is probably worth 2 or 3 points, I’d guess.
Thanks, Doug. That makes a lot of sense.