College Football Blue Blood Analysis - Through 2021 Season (updated with 2022 results in thread)

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Great stuff.

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Nice work, wow. Thanks for sharing.

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OK, I was just kidding - one more visual of the full list of 75 programs. Shows how big a gap there is with the top 4, the next 10-11, and then everyone else.

All 75
All 751910×917 159 KB

Here is the same chart, only considering data from the 2000’s. I think this shows the model at work! Greens and oranges to the left, Grays to the right.
All 75 - 2000s only
All 75 - 2000s only1424×581 68.9 KB

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This made me really think of something: how many years of terrible play would it take for the top 4 to lose their status? Like would 20 years of 5-7 be enough to kick Alabama out?

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That’s a good what-if question. Of course 20 more years would be a completely new “era” for my analysis, and if they went 5-7 that whole time, their most recent era would be be ugly and put them into a Fading Power type of category and take them out of the “Exclusives”. I am not going to hold my breath for that, however. Empires like that have Palpatine behind the scenes. :wink:

But for a real example of many years of “5-7”, look what happened to Nebraska. They were barely hanging on as a True Blue Blood in my 2018 study. Add several seasons and they’ve officially fallen out.

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Nick Saban IRL

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Just added a new graph to my post a few spots above this one that clearly shows the rise of the New Blue Bloods and Rising Powers while also showing the fall of the Falling Powers. I like this view - wish I had created it earlier.

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Just what you’ve all been waiting for - the updated College Football Blue Blood standings following the 2022 season. Here is the Top 40 (includes 41 due to a tie). You can see who has moved up and down since my first ranking after the 2017 season. Go back to the top of the thread to see the weighting criteria. Remember that this is a long game ranking system. Single seasons don’t make a significant impact in positioning.

College Football Bluebloods After 2022 Top 40
College Football Bluebloods After 2022 Top 40544×815 143 KB

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Teams above us that did not qualify for a bowl game this year: #6 Nebraska, #13 Miami, #15 Auburn, #19 Texas A&M, #23 Michigan State, #25 Georgia Tech, #29 West Virginia, #33 Arizona State, and #34 Virginia Tech.

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Buy: Tennessee

Sell: Oklahoma State

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No debate that the short term reaction supports your position. A lot of factors are involved for continued trends for 10-20 years.

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One more observation… after the 2017 season I created my original list of Fading Powers and Rising Powers. Thought I would look at where each of those teams stand in the rankings after 5 years. Did my categorization work as a prediction?

Fading Powers - I was right on 5, wrong on 1, and 4 more didn’t change
Michigan from #7 to #7 (no change)
Tennessee from #15 to #16 (dropped one spot EVEN with the success in 2022)
Notre Dame from #16 to #14 (rose 2 spots - good for Notre Dame to stop the slide; probably should be True Blue Blood anyway)
BYU from #17 to #17 (no change)
Penn State from #18 to #18 (no change)
Washington - from #20 to #20 (no change)
Michigan State from #21 to #23 (dropped 2 spots)
UCLA from #24 to #26 (dropped 2 spots)
Arizona State from #32 to #33 (dropped 1 spot)
Colorado from #34 to #36 (dropped 2 spots)

Rising Powers - I was right on 7 and wrong on 2
Oregon from #23 to #21 (rose 2 spots)
Wisconsin from #25 to #22 (rose 3 spots)
TCU from #26 to #24 (rose 2 spots)
West Virginia from #27 to #29 (dropped 2 spots)
Utah from #30 to #28 (rose 2 spots)
Virginia Tech from #31 to #34 (dropped 3 spots)
Oklahoma State from #36 to #35 (rose 1 spot)
Boise State from #38 to #37 (rose 1 spot)
Louisville from #41 to #40 (rose 1 spot)

Of the ones I missed… Notre Dame technically fell into the Fading Powers category by my metrics, but by all practical measurements they are a True Blue Blood (as an Independent they get no points for conference championships). West Virginia fell instead of rose… I think the move to the Big 12 had a lot to do with that. Finally, Virginia Tech lost their long-time coach.

Overall… not bad. :slight_smile:
@OKCDave - thought you might like this.

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This is phenomenal stuff. I love the idea of “program ranking” and seeing how schools compare to others historically. The thought you put into this is amazing (I missed when you posted it first, by the way). Great job.

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With the completion of the season last night, I have updated my Blue Blood Analysis sheet once again. I have now done this for 7 seasons. OSU continues a slow steady climb… we started at #36 and are now up to #34. Remember, changes to the overall rankings comprehending all-time results take a lot of time. Here is the Top 40 after the 2023 season. In the next post, I will show the Top 25 when only comprehending the 2000-2023 era.

My
Rank
After
2017		 My
Rank
After
2021		 My
Rank After 2022		 My
Rank After 2023		 School 1980+
Yrs
in
P5		 TOTAL
POINTS		 2000-
2023
1 1 1 1 Alabama 43 442.590 270.20
2 2 2 2 Oklahoma 43 357.750 191.50
3 3 3 3 Ohio State 43 348.480 182.90
4 4 4 4 USC 43 320.430 152.60
7 8 7 5 Michigan 43 270.570 98.80
5 5 5 6 Florida State 31 257.340 133.20
6 6 6 7 Nebraska 43 248.850 61.40
11 7 8 8 Clemson 43 245.200 153.60
13 10 10 9 LSU 43 244.590 164.30
12 11 9 10 Georgia 43 243.850 138.80
8 9 11 11 Texas 43 239.340 101.30
9 12 12 12 Florida 43 208.350 112.60
10 13 13 13 Miami 32 204.400 85.40
16 15 14 14 Notre Dame 43 196.510 69.20
14 14 15 15 Auburn 43 192.390 99.80
15 16 16 16 Tennessee 43 186.820 51.60
17 17 17 17 BYU 1 176.570 66.20
18 18 18 18 Penn State 30 171.050 61.60
20 20 20 19 Washington 43 164.530 68.60
19 19 19 20 Texas A&M 43 153.710 62.60
23 21 21 21 Oregon 43 152.960 113.40
25 23 22 22 Wisconsin 43 146.950 79.50
21 22 23 23 Michigan State 43 144.650 62.40
26 26 24 24 TCU 27 141.840 91.10
22 24 25 25 Georgia Tech 40 139.870 51.50
24 25 26 26 UCLA 43 138.760 44.90
27 27 29 27 West Virginia 32 133.570 74.70
29 28 27 28 Iowa 43 132.150 65.50
30 29 28 29 Utah 12 131.790 80.00
28 30 31 30 Ole Miss 43 129.330 46.70
35 32 30 31 Pittsburgh 32 125.760 58.20
31 33 34 32 Virginia Tech 32 124.590 74.40
33 34 32 33 Arkansas 43 124.250 44.20
36 35 35 34 Oklahoma State 43 123.740 69.70
32 31 33 35 Arizona State 43 123.100 43.40
38 37 37 36 Boise State 0 119.460 112.90
34 36 36 37 Colorado 43 117.440 23.50
43 39 38 38 Minnesota 43 113.530 53.60
42 46 43 39 Texas Tech 43 109.780 59.10
41 43 40 40 Louisville 16 109.080 84.20
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Top 25 - Using only points from the 2000-2023 era:

My
Rank
After
2017		 My
Rank
After
2021		 My
Rank After 2022		 My
Rank After 2023		 School 1980+
Yrs
in
P5		 TOTAL
POINTS		 2000-
2023
1 1 1 1 Alabama 43 442.590 270.20
2 2 2 2 Oklahoma 43 357.750 191.50
3 3 3 3 Ohio State 43 348.480 182.90
13 10 10 9 LSU 43 244.590 164.30
11 7 8 8 Clemson 43 245.200 153.60
4 4 4 4 USC 43 320.430 152.60
12 11 9 10 Georgia 43 243.850 138.80
5 5 5 6 Florida State 31 257.340 133.20
23 21 21 21 Oregon 43 152.960 113.40
38 37 37 36 Boise State 0 119.460 112.90
9 12 12 12 Florida 43 208.350 112.60
8 9 11 11 Texas 43 239.340 101.30
14 14 15 15 Auburn 43 192.390 99.80
7 8 7 5 Michigan 43 270.570 98.80
26 26 24 24 TCU 27 141.840 91.10
10 13 13 13 Miami 32 204.400 85.40
41 43 40 40 Louisville 16 109.080 84.20
n/a 44 45 45 Cincinnati 9 105.330 80.10
30 29 28 29 Utah 12 131.790 80.00
25 23 22 22 Wisconsin 43 146.950 79.50
27 27 29 27 West Virginia 32 133.570 74.70
31 33 34 32 Virginia Tech 32 124.590 74.40
n/a 61 61 63 UCF 1 74.340 72.50
36 35 35 34 Oklahoma State 43 123.740 69.70
16 15 14 14 Notre Dame 43 196.510 69.20
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One last note - I think 2024 will start a NEW ERA. This comprehends the new 12-team CFP and NIL. I will somehow adjust the points allocated for bowls vs. the CFP. The value of non-CFP bowl wins has dropped materially.

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If this was day 1 post football season, I look forward to seeing what you can do with the remaining 228 days!

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Here’s a look at 10-year moving average win totals for a quasi-random selection of programs. Oregon, Nebraska, and Minnesota do take a greater hit than others due to 2020 Covid cancellations dictated by their conference.

10 year Moving Average through 2023
10 year Moving Average through 2023983×687 183 KB

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I hate seeing even more evidence that OU is an absolute historical monster. Excited to hopefully never play them again.

That said, the new look Big 12 ain’t exactly a powerhouse. How about that angle? Using both the long-term and the last 23 year data, break these into conferences for 2024 and give a “conference power ranking.”

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At some point, every giant falls. OU’s time to drop off is coming.

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