Originally published at: https://pistolsfiringblog.com/early-bedlam-betting-odds-have-osu-as-6-5-point-underdog/
OSU will be an underdog for the first time all season.
If any of you are smart. Take OU to cover the 6.5 here. That’s what I’ll be doing in Bovada.
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Yeah, I expect that line to move past 7 in the coming days. I’m not gonna touch it until I know the status of our injured guys. Even if healthier I might be inclined to go OU, but the defense could possibly keep this close.
I don’t care if we have everyone back. I still know who the Head Coach is, and more than likely he’s going to play down to the level of the competition even if his team is better on paper.
If OsU only loses by 7 points I would say that we played a great game. OU is rolling and we are a train wreck because of injuries.
If OU wins it’s going to be because they have just a better team and better coach.
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If it were 3 of the last 4 games in Norman, OSU would have covered. Lost by 1 in 2018, won in 2014 and lost by 3 in 2012. This OSU team is better than any of those OSU teams, and this OU team is arguably worse than any of those OU teams, with the exception of 2014. So actually, recent history says not to take OU to cover if bedlam is in Norman. For some reason, they have more of an advantage in Stillwater than they do Norman.
To be fair, OU has been “rolling” against the three worst teams in the league. Against top 5 teams in the conference OU is 1-2 and their one win was in 4OT. Also, the majority of injured cowboys are back and practicing now.
I wouldn’t touch it if it’s under 7, but I’d think real hard about taking OSU if it moves past a touchdown. Games have been decided by more than a touchdown in Norman one time this decade, and OSU loves playing close games with everyone.
Good OSU teams don’t just lose in Norman. They get blown out in Norman. OSU was 9-2 and got thumped 27-0 in 2009 by a 6-5 OU team with essentially no offense.
OSU was on a seven game winning streak with guys like Justice Hill, Chris Carson, James Washington, and Mason Rudolph in 2016. Not only did they lost 38-20, but Perine decided to be nice and kneel at the one yard line to keep it from being 45-20. OU had lost to Houston that year as well.
You also have to take into account OSU has a coach that refuses to change his plans or make adjustments against OU. While OU has a coach that’s willing to do that. Spencer Sanders could throw three picks in the first half against OU and Gundy will still keep him in the game.
I’m sorry, but you have too much faith in Gundy and this team’s current offensive rhythm. It’s not like this offense looked super good before the injuries occurred. I highly doubt those issues are corrected in 10 days. Sad to know Gundy has an All-American HB and WR at his disposal and he’s still spent the better part of 6 weeks trying to figure out how to best use them.
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All day long, if you take the Sooners.
Some of this is fair.
As far as 2009 and 2016, One of those years our QB played with a broken collar bone (you could argue weeden should have played in that game, but everyone from that season including players and even Weeden himself admitted that he was a terrible practice player so Gundy didn’t know what he had), and in 2016 OU finished that season with 10 straight wins, including 4 top 20 blowout wins in a row to end that year. Ou was definitely better than OSU in 2016. You never know what’s going to happen in any given week. OSU’s offense was borderline nonexistent for over half of 2018 and I’m pretty sure corn dog threw for something absurd like 550 yards in bedlam. Last year, no offense to Dru brown but our offense was terrible with him in. They scored 6 offensive touchdowns over the last 3 games with him at QB.
This year OSU has shown both that they can be stagnant on offense and explosive. They put up more yards on Texas than anyone else has and dominated that game, but stupid mental errors cost them. They ran a ton of plays that they otherwise haven’t in any other games this year, and you can easily tell that they’ve been sitting back relying on their defense and staying fairly vanilla offensively, and pulling out unseen packages against teams like Texas and OU. It would have worked against Texas if we didn’t turn it over 5 times, tackle a punter for no reason or give up a KO TD. They even pulled out new run blocking and tight set packages in the 2nd half last week that we’ve never seen when they needed offense. I have no clue if it will happen against ou, and I’m honestly glass half empty on next week. But I think that’s more reasonable than expecting a blowout with 0% chance to win.
My bigger gripe with Gundy is he doesn’t let his offensive coordinators open up their imagination, he makes them stay close to his system and don’t let them roam to much. There’s a bunch of great OCs out there but what makes Riley so lethal and almost impossible to defend is he runs plays that literally no one else has seen. It’s almost like he’s running a trick play on every single snap, and I’ve never seen a team have so many open routes throughout a game. His ability to find defensive weaknesses from snap to snap is unbelievable. Maybe it’s flat out because Lincoln is smarter than him, but Gundy has none of that.
Lincoln will find a play that works then make you stop it, like running up the middle 15 times in a row.
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No…they just don’t have anything else to throw out there. I promise you if they did we would’ve seen it by now. This will be one of those game where Gundy comes in totally unprepared (like almost nearly every game) and he’ll coach against OU like he has the better team when in reality he probably doesn’t.
OU knows how good OSU is on the defensive side. They will try to run the ball with an occasional pass because they don’t want Rattler turning the ball over. They will rely on the stupidity of Gundy on the offensive side of the ball because they already know what they will be getting from this OSU offense.
They know he’ll be afraid to let Sanders throw the ball so they will try to establish the run at all costs (even though that’s OU’s strength in defense) and there will be more punts than points scored for the OSU offense.
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You literally just said Ou and OSU will have identical offensive game plans, yet Riley is a genius for it and Gundy is an idiot for it? Maybe it only works for OU because, ya know, they have better players than OSU.
I don’t know how much you’ve been watching both teams, but it’s pretty obvious that OU has been a better offensive team than OSU has been.
Besides Kansas what game can you tell me has struck you as OSU showing their offensive prowess? Texas??? Because I seen that offense turn the ball over four times against Texas. If they do that against OU they are definitely going to lose.
The OU offensive line is better than OSU’s as of right now. OU has also gotten players back from suspension. Now with the OSU offense it’s like they have a choice:
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Play crappy offense with almost no scoring, and don’t turn the ball over at all costs.
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Play to our ability offensively but risk turning the ball over a ton and giving OU more offensive chances.
So which one do you want to do?
Riley knows Sanders is turnover prone (OU will bring pressure). Riley also knows the OL sucks (He’ll contain OSU’s run). Riley will have at least 5 dropped back into coverage for almost the entire game because he knows with OSU’s OL situation and Sanders inability to find an open man not named Wallace his defense will give him a decent chance of winning the game.
Gundy will try to run the ball for fear of not turning the ball over. He will keep a turnover prone QB in the entire game and roll with him even if he has three picks going into the 4th quarter and OSU is down by 20.
This is exactly what you should expect to happen on November 21st, and I’ll be here to tell you “I told you so”.
My “I told you so” comment will be that this game will be close. OSU may not win, but they aren’t going to get blown out. I think you’ll be surprised.
So? With 6.5 points, how much money did you wager on the Pokes?
I won’t be surprised. I know who coaches OSU and I know who coaches OU. Pokes lose this one by at least 10. They can’t move the ball offensively. You think the defense is going to score three touchdowns for them? Take the orange shades off and get real dude.
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