Originally published at: Fornelli Pours Some Cold Water on the Drew Mestemaker Hype Train
‘I understand that kid put up numbers at North Texas, but like, it’s a different league that he’s playing in now.’
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I’m optimistic about Mestemaker. HOWEVER, it is true his level of competition has not been the same at NT as it will be in the Big 12 and with Oregon coming to town. I am curious to see how he and the receivers do when Big 12 defensive coordinators game plan against him to highlight his weaknesses and take away his strengths. I feel the same way about all those NT players. Are they ready for the big time or not? Especially the mediocre defense that came up from NT. What will Big 12 offensive coordinators do with that bunch? I’m hoping for the best. We will get a partial answer in less than four weeks.
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I think the “jump in competition” thing is going to be overblown, but overall, correct. I think his numbers will regress and he probably won’t be as highly regarded nationwide with those other guys that were mentioned by the time the season ends, but he’ll be a top Big XII QB, at least top third of the league.
You do have guys like Colt Brennan and Case Keenum that clearly feasted on weaker competition, were system guys, and were big fish in small pond types and their numbers were inflated and gaudy, but Case did have real NFL talent. Then you have your Josh Allens who are bona fide superstars playing low level ball and their talent was probably greater than their numbers and they were held back a bit. I think Keenum is probably the best comparison for Mestemaker. He has talent, it’s a little statistically inflated, but he could probably make it in the NFL as an average starter or a really good backup.
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Trinidad Chambliss played at DII Ferris State before transferring to Ole Miss. I think he did alright last year.
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How many NT player will be on first team O and D? How many on second team?
Looking at the OL there may be 3 or 4 new starters. Yes, the center from KU originally went to NT but practiced with Big XII talent last year. It sounds like the tackles are different - from uo and MSU. It looks like the young man from CC is getting a look at guard, a move from tackle. Where are the remnants of the oSu OL from last year’s team? Are they good enough to crack the top 2 strings? What does that say? What will the revamped OL (not totally NT transfers) mean for the QB?
Same with the DL: who from NT will start? Who from NT will be the next men inserted in the two deep? Are any holdovers from last years oSu team good enough to displace NT players or other transfers?
A lot of questions, as someone mentioned, will be answered in Tulsey Town, but IMHO, referring to oSu as NT north is a misnomer.
oSu
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Josh Allen’s numbers were TURRIBLE at Wyoming. I thought for sure he would be another BU$T. What saved him was his ability to run and going to a very good team. I think if he would’ve gone to say Cleveland, known for ruining QBs, he wouldn’t be half as good. In the NFL you have to get lucky and go to the team whose offense suits your skill set and also the HC and coaching staff will cater the offense to said skill set. In defense of guys like TTU and other Big XII QBs putting up crazy numbers, the NFL wasn’t ready for those type offenses to be in put in place and they still aren’t. Russell Wilson was very lucky going to Seattle when he did cause Pete Carroll saw what RW4 could do if they changed the O around what he did best.
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Alright, LOL. The kid is one of the best QBs in the nation, I’ll be surprised if he doesn’t go in the first round, but size might make him a 2nd rounder. Love his story, and he’s a good dude too. I think our new QB is also and Drew’s story is quite amazing as well, probably moreso than even Cambliss’ cause at least some team saw him as a QB. 
I expect his numbers to drop some in the Big 12. However, I still think he’s going to be a solid QB in the league and he actually has some kind of talent to help take the pressure off him some.
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Clearly there are examples aplenty on both sides of the coin. For every Trinidad Chambliss there are 5 guys that dont make it and you never hear from them again. And if it wasnt for Austin Simmons going down at Ole Miss, Chambliss may be a guy you never heard of either. The thing with Mestemaker is his supporting cast (mainly his OL). Chambliss went to Ole Miss with a stable of skipp players around him, a roster built with tons of money, and Lane Kiffin running the show. Mestemaker isnt coming in to the same situation that Chambliss did. OSU offensively will be fine offensivley, but putting Mestemaker with the UNT supporting cast is not the same as TC in Ole Miss. Mestemaker will be a really good QB in the Big 12, fighting for All-Conf honors if he stays healthy. The defense is the issue in Stillwater.
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That’s more or less how I see it.
I agree. You can even look at John Mateer as an example. His numbers weren’t as good after leaving Washington State and he struggled some being in the SEC.
Josh Allens numbers werent terrible at Wyoming. And playing QB in Wyoming weather isnt easy
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They weren’t good. He had a sub 60 completion percentage. That would’ve put him outside of the top 100 in last year’s NCAA. His TD:INT ratio wasn’t very impressive either. My only point was that playing at a lower level and moving to a higher one is hard to predict. Josh Allen was clearly a very raw talent that had a ton of potential that maybe wasn’t easy to see even against bad opposition (some NFL scouts saw it, some didn’t). I don’t know that Mestemaker has just a ton of untapped potential left, but maybe there’s more room for polish than I think. We won’t know until he starts doing it.
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For someone to say that Josh Allen was terrible at Wyoming, would be being very harsh. For someone to say that Josh Allen was very good while at Wyoming, would be being very generous. The guy put up 56 TD’s in 2 years. Those are better than terrible.
I dont think Mestemaker has a bunch more upside either. I think hes a good player. I think the people in Orange who think OSU is going to win the Conf are under the influence. I think the people who think North Texas isnt capable of having players that can compete in the Big 12 are also ridiculous.
Josh Allen was surrounded by subpar talent at Wyoming. He was 16-11 as a starter there. I have to take into account what talent you have to rely on as well. It’s like leaving Baker Mayfield at Cleveland. His numbers at Tampa Bay made that clear.
Baker led the Browns to the playoffs. That might be his most impressive accomplishment. He primarily looked like a failure because he played injured. I would say even his best Bucs teams are only slightly more of a threat to make a deep playoff run than his Browns team was. I wouldn’t say his ceiling has been raised significantly by being on a better team. He’s still a marginal wildcard round team leader with maybe a playoff spoiler run in him.
Likewise with Allen, it wasn’t primarily the talent around him, it was his own lack of polish. Sure, Wyoming’s roster probably held him back some, but he is so much better in every aspect of his game than he was his first few years in the league. He had tons of raw talent, but very little development. Sure, better talent around him might erase some mistakes, but he threw a lot of picks and incompletions and he’s really not had much talent around him in the NFL and has excelled because that mountain of untapped potential has been mined.
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I agree with most of what you said, with this exception “and he’s really not had much talent around him in the NFL” Hes not been surrounded by the 92’ Cowboys, but hes had a good cast around him by todays standards. They brought in one of the most sought after OC’s in Brady. They added Cole Beesley a few years ago. They have one of the best LT’s in the game and a Pro Bowl guy in Mcovern on the OL. Hes had Stefon Diggs. A Pro Bowl TE and RB. Im a fan of Allen, but hes got enough talent around him.
Go look at his numbers at Tampa Bay and compare them to Cleveland. Then come back and tell me he didn’t look like a better product being in Tampa Bay. Cleveland’s had 42 different starting quarterbacks since 1999. So at what point do you admit that the QB might not be the biggest problem?
You said the ceiling raised for Will Howard when he left K State and went to Ohio State. So how can one statement be true for Will Howard, and not for guys like Josh Allen and Baker Mayfield?
They’re up a little… Kind of. Outside of one amazing year in 2024, his completion percentage is pretty similar, his TD-INT ratio is pretty similar. His yardage is the main thing that’s gone up, but even then, only a little, it ends up being like 12-ish yards a game. Again, that’s excluding the 2024 season. He showed out that year.
Well, first of all, I didn’t say it wasn’t true. Obviously having better talent around you will make you better. I said it wasn’t the main reason. Baker had one great year in Tampa and a couple other years where he was about as successful as he was in Cleveland. His competition is also a lot easier in Tampa. The NFC South is a garbage division and has been since Brady retired. A losing team represented the division last year. The NFC North was much tougher when Baker was there. The Ravens, Steelers, and Bengals (with Burrow) were all pretty good to great and if Burrow weren’t perpetually hurt, it’d still be a really strong division.
The Bills aren’t destitute of talent, but I would guess they’re like generally middle of the league in PFF outside of Allen (which I get, franchise QBs eat cap space).