PFB+: One Week to Signing Day, a Look at Targets and Predictions

Gotcha, we don’t need a backup guy though. We need someone to come in and be the next guy up.

Trill is going to win a heisman so

This isn’t really true when you look at the data. There isn’t really a correlation between high level recruiting and competing for conference championships, atleast for 1 of the 2 teams competing in the game. Baylor, TCU, Wisconsin, Michigan St, Iowa, Utah, a lot of ACC teams as examples. None of these schools recruit at top 20 level. Actually more teams made conference championship games that recruited outside of the top 25 than ones who recruited from 11-25 on average.

However, there is a direct relationship between recruiting at an elite level (top 11) and making the CFP playoff and even moreso winning CFP games.

So basically the summary is - you can win by trying different strategies to a certain level (CCG), but to win a natty you need studs.

5 Likes

I guess I could amend my statement to say, unless you’re in a conference with only one elite team, outside the top 15-20 ain’t winning conference championships or playoffs.

Safe to say we will never sniff 2011 without significant recruiting upgrades, I guess is my point. Can it be done? Sure, someone’s gotta win the lottery at some point. And maybe no one but the big guys will ever really occupy those top 15 spots. Kind of a bummer for like most teams.

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You can sniff it, but everything has to go right. When you don’t recruit as well, the margin for error (injuries, player development, situational play, scheme) is much smaller. And the chances of all that going right are really slim.

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