Originally published at: https://pistolsfiringblog.com/why-is-osu-footballs-projected-win-total-in-2023-so-low/
6.5 wins … on the season?!
Given how much roster turnover OSU had, it’s not a surprise.
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I’m sure this has been debated to death, but I think even with the new QB, new D-coordinator, ect, ect, that the lowest acceptable record for OSU is 8-4. Right? Anything less would be a disaster, anything better than 10-2 would be an amazing surprise. To me at least.
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I’m honestly expecting 6-6. Too many unknowns for me to be confident in this team.
I understand that thought. I just believe that if we can’t find a QB between a veteran transfer, a coach’s son, and 2 high 3/low 4 star kids, then something has gone really wrong in Stillwater. The O-line should be a lot better also giving RBs and QBs more room/time to operate. The WR room appears stacked with offensive weapons. I am expecting the defense to be better than it was last year with CB really the only question mark for me.
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I think any other year I would be right there with you, but with our schedule I sure hope we find a way to win 8 games.
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I’m taking the over and out a little money on ten win season just for fun
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I’m thinking 7-5.
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We went 7-6 last year, and name one position where an outsider would argue we’ve gotten better. We lost our starting QB and are bringing in a 2 time power5 castoff. I really like Gordon, and he’ll be better with a year under his belt, but the position may not be. O-Line? WR? Bunch of losses with no real additions. How about on defense? We traded our SEC Head coach DC for some dude from a school that most people didn’t even know had a football program. Our stud LB transferred. Our super-senior DE transferred (to our instate rival no less). Our best safety is now in the league. And we’re basically betting that the 3 stars that could barely crack the two deep last year are going to be ready to play at a high level.
This view is obviously excessively pessimistic especially given the soft non-conference schedule. Gundy certainly has a history of winning 8-9 games when we’re picked to be this mediocre, and he very well may do it again. But we are certainly closer to a 6 win team than a 10 win team imo.
So lets do a legitimate projection:
I’ll give OSU all 3 Non-Con games. Even the ASU one.
@ISU - Probably a tossup, but I’ll give us this one. Thats four wins.
KSU - Closer than last year, but nah. - 4-1
KU - Im glad its at home. Very much a tossup game, but I’ll lean towards us with home field. 5-1
@WVU - I think WVU is bad this year. Win for the good guys. 6-1
Cincinnati - I think Cinci is better than us, but we get them at home. 7-1
OU - Loss likely - 7-2
@UCF - Toss up game on the road. Take the home team. 7-3
@UH - UH is better and on the road. 7-4
BYU - OSU on a 3 game losing skid going against a team of 24 year old men. Not a recipe for a win. 7-5
So I have OSU at 7-5 which clears the vegas number, but OSU’s range of likely outcomes falls between 5-9 wins.
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I think we go 7-5, which gets us to a bowl and satisfies both Gundy and the “you don’t remember how bad it was” fanbase.
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We have the 4th easiest P5 schedule in the country. Should be able to squeeze 7-8 wins out of that.
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Even if we don’t, nothing changes. Everyone will claim we’re the second best team in the conference even though we’ve only been in one conference title game in the last 7 years.
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This is just a recent 5 year history:
2018: 7-6
2019: 8-5
2020: 8-3
2021: 12-2 (elite defense)
2022: 7-6
This is Gundy’s MO. Unless he finds an elite offense or defense (or luck) you can pretty much guarantee a 7-8 win season. It’s called the Law of Averages. That’s why we’re set at 6.5, also combine that with what we lost and gained in the portal. Also our OL and OC coaches. Sounds about right to me.
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I like the way you look at this. But, try this. We lost a qb that only stayed healthy in the 12 win season. Were get a qb as a freshman in part of a season threw for more then sanders. Our lead rb couldnt find a hole in the bottom of a rusty bucket. Your stud de has played in 5 games inthe last 3 years. Because of injures the recievers have lead the nation in drops, their gone. Our hb was 5’9" and 200 lbs. No te was taller the 6’3" and caught more then 2 balls. Tech brought in a high school coach so why not a d3 coordinator. Lt that was graded as the worst lineman in fbs football.
Yes i do see your point. Lmao
Pathetic
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We brought in help everywhere we lost anything. RB from Mich St is good for 10 carries a game Receiver from Wash St has good numbers. Good recruit, Greene is back, Shettron is out of redshirt , lots of good things said , I know he hasn’t shown it yet , Bray is healthy, out QB can be good. Sat on the bench for a CP team , threw for over 5k yards in 19 games at Texh. OL will be better, how much we will see. I don’t see all the pessimism …. We couldn’t block or catch last year
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6.5 wins is not preposterous. It’s a pretty good calculation for a team that lost so much talent in the portal/graduation. Last year’s collapse was a disaster, which was followed by a disastrous off-season. Gundy made no coaching changes other than bringing in a D3 defensive coordinator. What would honestly make anyone believe things will be better? (And for the love of God, please no more injuries excuse.)
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Considering the turnover in the roster and a brand-new defensive coach who’s never coached at this level, and is bringing a scheme that is new to OSU, that creates a lot of uncertainty and doubt.
To me, the defense is the biggest question. A new scheme, new coordinator, and only 2 returning starters (which might actually help with learning the system). The second question is the offensive line. If it can’t protect Bowman - who lacks mobility - then it could be a rough year, along the lines of 2014 or 2022. If they can protect Bowman and run block, then maybe we’ll do better.
So yeah, I am not surprised that 6-7 wins is the likely bet from Vegas. Gundy’s teams have a habit of overperforming when not expected to (2010 and 2021 being maybe the best examples of that) and underperforming when picked to do well (2022, among others). 2011 remains the outlier - picked to do well and did well, came within a few inches of playing for the national title (just like 2022).
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I get tired of hearing guys like you calling the amount of injures we had as excuses. A couple of injures are excuses. The amount we had would be called epic or biblical.
Can you name all the injuries and games missed. I think fans expecting to much is a poor excuse for osu fans.
Ill be waiting for that list of players you think didnt have excuses. I will give you a hint that texas game we started with 8 guys that never played before on kick off.
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“Tech brought in a high school coach”
Joey was 8yrs removed from being a HS coach before he took the HC gig at Tech. He was Matt Rhules Associate Head Coach and was named the Interim HC in between he and Aranda. Joeys resume was pretty solid before Tech hired him. So saying “Tech brought in a high school coach” is misleading at best and flat ignorant at worst.
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Joey only coached 5 years before taking the tech job. Tomato slice i like to push billy. Billy went care because joey hadnt even coached as a coordinator in college.
The main reason matt brought in joey was to recruit and help him with texas hs.
When you correct a guy that cant spell and has an iq of 28, make sure you got your facts straight or you look like a baboon. You can count with your figures and sound out the season. 1 for 2017 two for 2018 etc…
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