OSU after week 1:
SP+
Overall: 33
Offense: 2
Defense: 114
FEI
Overall: 32
Offense: 7
Defense: 90
Average among 42 ranking systems in Massey’s composite: 27
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For anyone wondering, we finished last year 22nd in S&P+ 7th and 71st in Offense and Defense respectively.
Looks like 38th, 12th and 94th for FEI.
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At what point in the season does the average eliminate any easy-scheduling bias? Game 6? Most teams schedule easy games in the first 4, so to be comparable to last year’s final we’d have to wait for game…?
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Bill’s intro paragraphs for each week’s rankings contain this:
“SP+ is intended to be predictive and forward-facing. That is important to remember. It is not a résumé ranking that gives credit for big wins or particularly brave scheduling – no good predictive system is. It is simply a measure of the most sustainable and predictable aspects of football. If you’re lucky or unimpressive in a win, your rating will probably fall. If you’re strong and unlucky in a loss, it will probably rise.”
So I guess never? In the post week one article for 2018, I don’t see the unit breakdowns, but the top teams didn’t move much. We were 12th at the time, so we did drop a fair amount, which is to be expected given our up and down season.
interesting. Thanks.
I think it’s reasonable to post gambling market info in here, as it’s essentially an amalgamation of a variety of advanced ranking systems (along with some other stuff).
The OSU-Texas line opened up at 9.5 in June, and crept down to 9 during the offseason. It’s now at 7. The lines in Texas’s other games haven’t moved much, so it appears that the bookmakers (or at least the one that has posted these look-ahead lines) have been impressed by what they’ve seen so far from the Pokes.
The Bedlam line is down from 10.5 to 10.
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Update through week 2
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So, the defense was much improved against much lesser competition?
Barring any absurd game delays, we should beat Tulsa by 28 points.
I think the improvement in the SP+ system is more due to last year’s rankings weighing down on this year’s team less as we progress through the season.
I find it interesting that the oddsmakers have apparently been more impressed (compared to expectations) by OSU’s season than by Texas’s. The summer time line on OSU-Texas was 9.5. It opened at 6.5 last night.
According to SP+, OSU has beaten the 94th and 96th-best teams in the country, along with McNeese. Texas has beaten teams 91 and 128. Pretty much a wash, except Texas’s victories were more convincing. Then there’s the Texas loss to LSU, but it seems to me like the narrative takeaway from that was OMG LSU IS A REAL TITLE CONTENDER CUZ THEY BEAT TEXAS AND LEARNED TO THROW THE FORWARD PASS!!!
I really don’t understand how all that adds up to a 3-point move in favor of the Pokes.
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My guess is Texas doesn’t appear to have a defense and we have the nation’s leading receiver and running back, and appear to have at least competence at QB. That should be enough for us to keep it a little closer in Vegas’s eyes.
lol at this
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The line is now down to 5, and even 4.5 in some spots. This definitely means influential money was betting the Pokes +6.5 or +7 this morning. Will be interesting to see if influential money now likes Texas at this smaller spread.
At the one book where I can find bettable current Big XII odds, OSU has now surpassed Iowa State as the third-most-likely Big XII winner.
Preseason, it was OU [big drop] Texas [big drop] Iowa State [drop] OSU/TCU/Baylor in a bunch
Now it’s OU [big drop] Texas [big drop] OSU [small drop] ISU [small drop] TCU/Baylor
Related: K-State is still 50-1, which tells you that they’re maybe not paying as close attention to these lines as they ought to be.
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Iowa State is still overrated.
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Bill put out his weekly picks, I guess home field is enough to give Texas a razor thin 51% chance of winning.
Yep. SP+ and FEI both have it at 51% for Texas.
Fivethirtyeight just released their college football rankings and prediction tool. I don’t think their rankings are as good (from a predictive standpoint) as SP+, but their presentation is superb. https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2019-college-football-predictions/
Big 12 teams rank as follows:
OU 8
TCU 16
Texas 17
KSU 21
OSU 22
ISU 33
Baylor 34
The probability of winning conference orders it differently:
OU 46%
Texas 12%
OSU 11%
Baylor 9%
KSU 9%
TCU 5%
ISU 4%
I guess the difference must be schedule, right?
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I love 538’s presentation. Assuming an OSU win and the rest of the conference going chalk this week, the probability of winning the conference would look like this:
OU 45%
OSU 18%
Baylor 10%
K-State 9%
TCU 7%
ISU 5%
Texas 3%
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